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Ryan Detrick, former LPL market strategist

Portfolio > Economy & Markets > Stocks

2 Signs Stocks, Economy Headed Higher: Carson Group's Detrick

By Dinah Wisenberg Brin

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Two recent market signals add to the evidence suggesting stocks and the economy are headed toward better times, according to Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

The firm, which has pointed to bullish market signals throughout the year, expects more solid gains for stocks in 2023 and predicts the economy will avoid a recession.

The latest signs? First-quarter earnings results and a higher S&P 500 200-day moving average.

“First up, this past earnings season was really good relative to expectations,” Detrick wrote Tuesday in a blog post. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter earnings, with “a very impressive” 78% beating expectations, he noted, citing FactSet data.

“Yes, earnings are set to come in down 2.2% versus the first quarter last year, but this is much better than the 6.6% drop that was expected this time seven weeks ago,” Detrick wrote, adding that all 11 sectors came in better than expected.

The average company surpassed earnings estimates by 6.5%, one of the best beats in years, while the average small-cap stock beat by an even wider margin, he added.

In addition, MSCI USA Index trailing 12-month earnings “have officially bottomed and are now heading higher,” Detrick said, citing data from Ned Davis Research. Nearly 80% have issued increased revisions, according to the strategist.

“All in all, this is a very strong signal that all the worries about the impending recession have been greatly exaggerated and corporate America likely sees better times coming,” Detrick wrote.

He also noted the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average “has officially turned higher. This is a longer-term trendline and it tends to catch significant trends. Right now, it’s rebounding off a bottom and that is another feather in the cap for bulls.” Looking at historical stock market data, “I eyeballed 10 times this turned higher and all 10 were nice times to own stocks,” Detrick said.

Bespoke Investment Group, looking at data going back to 1928, found that all 20 times the 200-day moving average moved up at least 1% within three months following a 52-week low, the S&P 500 was higher a year later, with an 18.2% average gain, he said.

Many “permabears” have dug in their heels, “likely costing many investors a good deal of gains and future gains,” Detrick added.

“The vast majority of what we see continues to look quite positive and we expect more solid gains from stocks the rest of this year, with an economy that will avoid a recession and surprise to the upside,” he said.

Dinah Wisenberg Brin

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