Odds of U.S. Going Past Default Date Are 25% and Rising: JPMorgan

There’s a roughly one-in-four chance that the U.S. will hit the so-called X-date — at which the government runs out of cash — without a deal to raise the debt limit, and the odds are getting worse, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“We still think the most likely outcome is a deal signed into law before the X-date, though we see the odds of passing that date without an increase in the ceiling at around 25% and rising,” JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Wednesday in a note to clients.

“In this latter scenario, we think there is a very high likelihood Treasury would prioritize principal and interest payments,” he wrote. “While doing so would avoid a technical default, there would still be several adverse effects, including a likely downgrade of the US credit rating.”